In the past few days a detailed explanation has emerged as to why GE13 will be held in mid to late March. It has to do with the expiration of the Johor State Assembly, the PM’s busy overseas meeting schedule in February, and the proximity of the campaign to the end of Chinese New Year celebrations in February.
Whatever the reasoning, elections are around the corner, so it is also time to run the ruler over the major parties – and people – who will be clambering for our attention and votes with just a few weeks to go.
This will be an election for 222 Dewan Rakyat seats. It won’t be a Presidential election, which is a shame for Barisan Nasional because if it were, its leader “Mr. 63 Percent”, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, would be what the Americans call a shoe-in.
That approval figure isn’t the result of a personality contest because survey respondents have repeatedly cited real issues for their vote of confidence. His stewardship of the economy and his long-term plans for the nation are the reasons he gets their support. It’s an even more remarkable number given that the BN he inherited when he became leader was, to put it bluntly, bloated and stale.
Aside from the policy initiatives he has introduced since 2009, reforming this coalition that has been in power 55 years has been Najib’s greatest success to date. We will get an idea of just how much progress he has made when the candidate list is published for GE13, which will likely show a number of old-timers consigned to history.
But make no mistake; Najib represents our booming economy and ground-breaking reforms. Five percent growth in an election year while so much of the world suffers? For any other world leader set to face the people that would be the only thing they campaign on!
But Najib wants to talk about more. He wants voters to think ahead, about the high income developed nation status the Government aims to achieve by the year 2020, the reform of our school system to make it among best in the world, and global banks setting up shop in KL, the new regional financial hub.
Meanwhile Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim looks like he is ready to fly the white flag and there is evidence of his defeatist attitude all around us. Firstly, he doesn’t counter Najib’s policies and ideas, explaining how he would do it better and demanding voters make a choice between the two.
Anwar instead portrays himself as a victim of the ruthless BN machine that will rob him of victory at GE13, a machine he wants removed through an “uprising” instead of winning over the populace through concrete suggestions and proposals of how to improve their lives. These populist antics seem a desperate last effort by an Opposition devoid of ideas.
But he also doesn’t assert himself internally. Occasionally Anwar nudges PAS over its hudud campaign, but not in a way that would actually make a difference. If the Islamists actually respected – or feared – Anwar’s leadership, they would be too respectful – or afraid – to cross him.
Instead, in the absence of Anwar’s firm leadership, the news agenda is occupied by summonses against hairdressers and a ban on female dancers in Kedah for Chinese New Year.
The other evidence of Anwar’s defeatism is that rather than focus on his rapport with the rakyat and convince them of his vision (or lack thereof), he has remained obsessed by gaining power by other means: defections, and deals with parties such as SAPP that want to take him for ride.
He also, remarkably, when challenged with the idea that PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang could be Prime Minister instead of him said “no problem”. So much for asserting his authority, or is he seeing the writing on the wall and is beginning to buckle under the pressure?
Around Anwar operates PKR, which an analyst writing for the Asia Sentinel website last week described as having “severe organizational problems”. That translates into party turmoil, with PKR’s only state involved in open civil war and the leader’s daughter offending Islamic sensibilities with her careless comments.
DAP, meanwhile, believes it is better than PKR. Better disciplined and better organised (but certainly not better at addition given the recent CEC election fiasco). It’s biggest problem is that rather than be multi-ethnic it is now more Chinese-focussed than ever, meaning it has lost Indian voters to BN and has had to come up with a contrived Malay-candidate agenda to give it a better chance in mixed race urban seats.
Which brings us, last but not least, to PAS. It has never worried about its support base, which is the largest of any Pakatan party. But as we all know, it is a perfect paradox. The more it does to appeal to its base, the more it alienates its Pakatan partners and renders itself unelectable to the rest of the nation.
There is also the argument that PAS has not effectively managed to woo poor rural voters, as many of them like Najib’s social measures, such as the 1Malaysia aid initiatives. They were also positively surprised what Felda Global has done for the lives of settlers, despite the bad-mouthing and opposition to the floatation by Pakatan.
Beyond religious comfort there is little PAS has to say to these people. Vote for us and our secular Chinese friends? It doesn’t have much of a ring to it, does it?
Sure, BN is not the perfect coalition either, but which coalition is? However, it is by far more in synch than Pakatan, whose sole common objective is to take power in Putrajaya. So before heading to the polls, think about the following:
Have you considered to not only look at what Najib has so far, but what more he can do with a renewed mandate? Because when it comes to reforms, he has only just begun.
Have you thought about the risks involved in electing an unknown quantity in the form of Pakatan Rakyat during volatile economic times, which Malaysia has commendably navigated so far under Najib? Financial experts have already warned that a Pakatan government will lead to frightened capital markets and an investment downturn.
And think about hesitant Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, trying to restore order at his first cabinet meeting after he had to divvy up the prized minister positions between PKR, DAP and PAS. This is a man, who, weeks before the elections, doesn’t even have a Shadow Cabinet in place.
That first meeting would include the words: “So what are our policies?” And after that, all hell would break loose.
GE13 is near. Now it all feels very real.